Transit Trouble: NYC Subway Faces a 17% Surge in Major Crimes Early 2026

Commuters riding the New York City subway in early 2026 have felt unease creep back into the daily commute. As riders return in full force after pandemic disruptions, the numbers troublingly show that subway and bus major crimes—from robbery to assault to the first underground homicide—are rising sharply.

The Numbers Unsettling a Restored System

Through February 8, city data reveals major transit crimes have climbed 17% compared to the same stretch in 2025, rising from 210 incidents to 246. Robberies lead the surge, with a 58% jump (60 vs. 38 cases), while assaults rose 9% (71 vs. 65), exposing new pressure points beneath the streets. This sharp climb also includes NYC’s first fatal subway shooting of the year, sparking anxious reactions from straphangers. The victim, Adrian Dawodu, was shot on a Bronx subway platform—his death underlining the grim turn crime statistics have taken.

Contrasts: A Low Base, Rising Fears

These increases should be understood against a record of dramatic drops. By late 2025, the subway system had logged the lowest major crime rates in nearly two decades. Major transit felony crime was down 5.2% from 2024 and down nearly 14.4% versus 2019; normalized per million riders, crime had fallen about 30% since a 2021 peak. Yet even after those gains, the new 2026 trend is making many question whether the safety progress was fragile.

Why It’s Happening: Cracks in a Tight Ecosystem

• Enforcement Pullbacks: Summonses and arrests within the transit system have dropped. Despite rising crime in January, the number of arrests inside subways dropped marginally year-over-year, and enforcement of fare-related and disorder violations was scaled back.
• Mental Health, Homelessness & Substance Use: Several of the worst incidents stemmed from behavioral crises. Stakeholders repeatedly warned that untreated mental illness, homelessness, and substance abuse are bubbling into transit life.
• Policy Tensions: Local leaders have diverged on tactics. Commissioner Tisch’s “precision policing” strategy—deploying officers in hot spots—has seen success citywide, while recent orders by Mayor Zohran Mamdani to limit police ejections of homeless individuals during emergencies have coincided with transit crime spikes.
• Recall of Physical Improvements: Investment in protective infrastructure—platform edge barriers, enhanced lighting, SCOUT outreach—helped drive 2025’s improvements. But threats remain when budget cycles wane or deployment schedules stall amid winter conditions or shifting priorities.

What’s Being Done & What Could Help

Authorities haven’t been idle. Governor Kathy Hochul has committed tens of millions in funding to expand NYPD patrols and to roll out SCOUT teams—clinical outreach paired with law enforcement—to address severe mental health emergencies underground. Platform barriers have been installed at over 115 stations, with more planned, and lighting upgrades have been accelerated to make stations feel safer and more visible.

There are signs the NYPD is responding too. Last year, shooting incidents across the subway fell by more than 60% compared to prior years, and broad categories of major crime in the city dropped sharply. But 2026’s early spike in transit offenses suggests those gains are fragile—able to rebound if pressures aren’t held in check.

The Perception Problem

Even as the data swings both ways, feeling safe plays a major role in ridership, business, and public trust. Riders report being especially wary after dark or on lesser-used lines and stations despite falling citywide crime. A safer platform or better lighting might ease paranoia, but headlines of murders or robberies spread fear fast—often faster than the falling crime numbers of 2025 can counter.

What’s at Stake Moving Forward

If the 2026 surge becomes a trend, policy backtracking could worsen the most vulnerable areas: late-night trains, remote platforms, riders of color and low-income commuters, whose subway experiences skew markedly worse. Whether investments hold, strategies adapt, or new leadership steers the operation, the coming months will reveal whether NYC’s transit safety gains will endure or unravel.

Conclusion: The early 2026 spike in subway and bus crime marks a sharp detour from last year’s historic lows. But swift policy shifts, investment in infrastructure, and honest engagement with homelessness and mental health challenges could steer New York back toward safer rails. Riders deserve nothing less than a commute free of fear.